Cómo no combatir la desigualdad de ingresos

14 de noviembre de 2018 RICARDO HAUSMANN

Intentar combatir la desigualdad de ingresos mediante la compresión salarial obligatoria no es solo una preferencia extraña. Es un error, como lo descubrirá el presidente electo de México, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, en unos años, después de que se haya hecho mucho daño.

CAMBRIDGE: supongamos que dos personas tienen opiniones diferentes sobre un tema de política. ¿Es posible decir que uno está bien y el otro mal, o simplemente tienen preferencias diferentes? Después de todo, ¿cuál es la diferencia entre una preferencia impar y un error?

Una preferencia influye en una elección que se espera que entregue el objetivo que el seleccionador quiere lograr. Un error es una elección basada en una creencia errónea sobre cómo funciona el mundo, de modo que el resultado no es lo que esperaba el seleccionador. Desafortunadamente, esta puede ser una forma costosa de aprender. También puede no ser concluyente, porque siempre es posible atribuir las malas consecuencias del error a otros factores.

Un ejemplo de ello es la decisión del presidente electo de México, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), de reducir los salarios de los niveles más altos de la administración pública, incluido él mismo, limitándolos a $ 5,707 por mes. Muchos saludaron la decisión, anunciada en julio , con alegría . Demostró que AMLO estaba comprometido con la austeridad fiscal y la igualdad de ingresos.

Editado por Irving Iván Marín Pascual https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mexico-mistaken-plan-to-lower-public-salaries-by-ricardo-hausmann-2018-11?barrier=accesspaylog

Cómo poner fin a la pesadilla de Venezuela

3 de diciembre de 2018 RICARDO HAUSMANN

Los problemas de Venezuela no se resolverán sin un cambio de régimen. Y eso podría, y debería, suceder después del 10 de enero, cuando la comunidad internacional ya no reconozca la legitimidad de la presidencia de Nicolás Maduro.

CAMBRIDGE: desear un problema no suele ser una estrategia efectiva. Si bien la comunidad internacional ha centrado su atención en otros temas, la catástrofe venezolana se ha profundizado. Si las tendencias actuales continúan, solo empeorarán. 

Un día de trabajo al salario medio ahora compra 1,7 huevos o un kilogramo de yuca, la caloría más barata disponible. Un kilogramo de queso local cuesta 18 días de trabajo de salario medio; un kilo de carne cuesta casi un mes, dependiendo del corte. Los precios han estado subiendo a tasas hiperinflacionarias durante 13 meses consecutivos y la inflación está en camino de superar la marca del 1,000,000% este mes . La producción continúa cayendo como una piedra: la OPEP informa que en octubre de 2018, la producción bajó un 37% año tras año, o casi 700,000 barriles por día.

Según Alianza Salud , una coalición de ONG, los nuevos casos de malaria en 2018 se han disparado por un factor de 12 desde 2012, lo que lleva el total a más de 600,000, que es el 54% de todos los casos en las Américas. Grandes extensiones del territorio venezolano se han cedido a organizaciones criminales, incluidos grupos terroristas como las FARC y el ELN de Colombia, que colaboran con la Guardia Nacional en la producción de oro y coltán, así como en el tráfico de drogas.

Editado por Irving Iván Marín Pascual http://project-syndicate.org/commentary/ending-the-venezuelan-nightmare-by-ricardo-hausmann-2018-12?barrier=accesspaylog

El secreto maligno de China

2 de ene de 2019 RICARDO HAUSMANN

En principio, los ahorros masivos de China, los conocimientos de infraestructura y la disposición a prestar podrían ser excelentes para las economías en desarrollo. Lamentablemente, como muchos países han aprendido por las malas, la financiación del desarrollo de China a menudo entrega un alto nivel de azúcar lleno de corrupción a la economía, seguido de una desagradable resaca financiera (y a veces política).

CAMBRIDGE: los secretos pueden estar entre los activos más valiosos que tienen los gobiernos: el Caballo de Troya, el código Enigma, el Proyecto Manhattan y ataques sorpresa como Pearl Harbor, la Guerra de los Seis Días y la Guerra de Yom Kippur son solo algunos de Los ejemplos más conocidos. Pero en algunos casos, el deseo de secreto de los gobiernos es difícil de igualar con el interés nacional, e incluso puede ser una de las amenazas más peligrosas para él. La amenaza es aún mayor cuando el secreto es provocado por los intereses poco elevados de un gobierno extranjero que intenta salirse con la suya.

Un ejemplo de ello es la financiación del desarrollo internacional chino. China se ha convertido en un jugador nuevo e importante en esta área. En principio, los ahorros masivos de China, los conocimientos de infraestructura y la disposición a prestar podrían ser excelentes para los países en desarrollo. Por desgracia, Pakistán, Sri Lanka, Sudáfrica, Ecuador y Venezuela han aprendido por las malas, las finanzas del desarrollo chino a menudo entregan un azúcar cargado de corrupción a la economía, seguido de una desagradable resaca financiera (y a veces política).

A medida que los países enfrentan el aumento de los costos de los proyectos y tratan de dar sentido a lo que sucedió y cómo salir del desorden, descubren que los términos financieros de sus obligaciones se han ocultado contractualmente en secreto. Además, los contratos imponen restricciones a la capacidad de los prestatarios, como las empresas estatales, de dar a conocer los términos al gobierno, y mucho menos al público.

Editado por Irving Iván Marín Pascual https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-development-finance-secrecy-by-ricardo-hausmann-2019-01?barrier=accesspaylog

Lloyds expects another near £2bn hit from surprise jump in PPI claims

09/09/2019

Lloyds is putting aside an extra £1.2bn to £1.8bn to cover a surge in PPI claims in the run-up to last month’s deadline, taking the total bill for the mis-selling scandal to more than £20bn.

As a result, the bank will suspend a planned £1.75bn share buyback.

In the month leading up to the PPI deadline of 29 August, claims per week unexpectedly soared from around 190,000 to between 600,000 and 800,000, Lloyds said in a statement.

Lloyds follows a string of other banks that have increased their PPI provisions after a surge of interest before the deadline.

Royal Bank of Scotland said last week that it could take a further £900m hit over the claims when it releases its third-quarter results later this year.

In the last few weeks, CYBG – which owns Virgin Money, Clydesdale and Yorkshire banks – said it is setting aside an extra £450m after 340,000 customers requested information over PPI.

Co-op Bank has also said it has received a flood of requests, and Santander UK was forced to extend the deadline after its website crashed under the strain of applications.

On Monday Lloyds said it remains uncertain over the true level of PPI claims, noting: “The group continues to process [claims], and the final PPI provision could be above or below the range provided.”

Banks had complained in the past that customers were making claims even though they had never even taken out loans with them.

Lloyds had already revealed a £650m PPI charge in results for the six months to 31 July, but Monday’s announcement means that figure will now be higher.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/lloyds-ppi-misselling-provisions-deadline-a9097511.html

Lloyds latest £1.8bn PPI hit once again exposes big investors’ failure to be more than absentee landlords

11/09/2019

The fresh round of PPI hits flagged by RBS, Virgin, and Co-op were always going to serve as hors d’oeuvres to Lloyds. The main course has proven harder to stomach than anyone could have expected: a late spike in claims that could cost the bank up to £1.8bn. 

Complaints had been running at just under 200,000 a week but that number quadrupled as the deadline agreed between the banks and the Financial Conduct Authority for submitted them approached. 

If Lloyds’ worst case scenario is realised, the total cost to the industry will come in at over £50bn, of which it will have contributed just under £22bn. 

It is, of course, possible that the final cost of the pre deadline claims spike will come in towards the lower end of Lloyds’ range, which the bank put at £1.2bn. 

Some of the late rush may be the result of people just rolling the dice and submitting claims with little validity. 

When banks huff and puff about their customers doing that, it pays to remember that it wouldn’t have happened if they hadn’t ripped off millions of people in the first place. 

That said, the thing to remember about PPI is banks’ worst case scenarios have time and again proven to be wildly over optimistic. 

The financial hit from this latest provision will have real world consequences for Lloyds’ investors. While bank has sought to reassure that it will have sufficient capital to pay its dividend, its share buy back programme (another means of returning capital to investors) has been suspended. 

That had been helping to prop up the share price of late.

Big investors suffering fall out from this, even if it’s limited, is a very welcome development. 

Few of them raised any questions when banks were aggressively selling millions of worthless PPI policies, despite the fact that the profit margins on them were so wildly out of whack when compared to other insurance policies that it ought to have raised alarm bells. 

Institutional shareholders, with a time horizon longer than a few months, should have been asking how those sort of margins were produced and whether they were sustainable. If it looks to good to be true in banking, that’s because it usually is. 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/lloyds-banking-group-ppi-misselling-18bn-provision-banking-investors-absentee-landlords-fca-a9097426.html

UK will sweeten travel to and from EU with duty-free alcohol and tobacco after no-deal Brexit

10/sep/2019

The return of tariffs in the event of a no-deal Brexit will make many foods and other imports more expensive, but alcohol and cigarettes will become cheaper – provided you buy them on your way to the EU or in a duty-free shop on the continent. 

The Treasury announced on Tuesday that duty-free shopping for those products will be reintroduced for EU countries if Britain leaves the bloc without an agreement, falling out of the single market and becoming a third country – ie no longer part of the union.  

That means people shopping in UK airports, ports and international train stations when travelling to the EU will no longer have to pay UK excise duties on alcohol and tobacco. The Treasury estimates that a bottle of wine bought in Heathrow duty-free could, as a result, be up to £2.23 cheaper.

Holidaymakers will now also be able to bring in limited amounts of alcohol and cigarettes bought at duty-free shops in the EU, saving over £12 on two crates of beer, for example.

Chancellor of the exchequer Sajid Javid said: “As we prepare to leave the EU, I’m pleased to be able to back British travellers.

“We want people to enjoy their hard-earned holidays and this decision will help holidaymakers’ cash go that little bit further.”

Currently, travellers will be able to shop duty-free when going to non-EU countries. 

Travellers within the EU were able to shop without paying certain local taxes and duties, or customs charges, until the 1990s, on the condition that they took the goods out of the country. Duty-free sales were then abolished when the single market was introduced, effectively erasing national borders. 

In a 1997 statement defending the decision, the European Commission wrote: “People enjoy being able to literally fill up their car or baggage with goods bought in other EU countries that are cheaper or not available in their country of residence. 

Being able to buy a single 1l bottle of spirits and a single box of 200 cigarettes in a duty-free shop if you happen to travel by air, sea or the Channel Tunnel shuttle pales in comparison with the new opportunities to shop in other EU countries.”

These opportunities include the freedom to bring in unlimited amounts of goods bought anywhere in the EU without systematic border checks, making shopping in another EU country as easy as purchasing in a local shop, the commission noted.

This freedom will be kept in part after a no-deal Brexit, according to the Treasury statement. People travelling back from the EU will still be able to bring back unlimited amounts specifically of alcohol and cigarettes, provided they did not buy them in a duty-free shop.

The Treasury’s decision on duty-free shopping will not apply to movements of goods from Northern Ireland to EU member state Ireland, as EU law does not allow the Irish government to operate duty-free at the land border.

A no-deal Brexit, which until last week looked increasingly likely, faces a fresh hurdle after parliament passed a law to stop such an outcome. The bill requires Boris Johnson to request an extension to Brexit negotiations until the end of January unless he can secure a deal or parliamentary approval for no deal by 19 October.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/no-deal-brexit-duty-free-shopping-eu-uk-travel-alcohol-cigarettes-discounts-a9098966.html

The horrors of Hollywood financing will mean the return of Pennywise the clown

11/sep/2019

It: Chapter Two has had, shall we say, mixed reviews. You can at least partly blame the business of moviemaking for that. The first outing for Pennywise, the world’s favourite frightening clown, was produced for just $35m (£28.4m) and went on to gross in excess of $700m, making it one of the most profitable films of 2017. 

As a result, Chapter Two didn’t just get the go ahead. It got a much bigger budget, double the original according to director Andy Muschietti, with plenty more where that came from for marketing and promotion.  

With all that extra money he made… not a stinker but a collection of great individual scenes without a coherent narrative behind them. An ok film that is arguably less than the sum of its parts. That is at least, one of the charges that has been laid at the door of the sequel. 

A lack of cash, or at least a limit on it, clearly puts storytelling on a premium. Oodles of it often leads to filmmakers becoming focused upon spending it at the cost of a good tale. 

But if the end product proves popular, who cares? A franchise can be built upon its shoulders. Which is why studios like Warner Bros are willing to commit big piles of bucks to follow up a hit.

Filmmaking is an appallingly expensive and risky business, with ruinously high upfront costs and no guarantee of a return on them. Each outing is a stab in the dark. 

That risk is much reduced if the film is part of an established franchise which can get people into theatres regardless of what critics say. Just ask Disney shareholders. It took a risk on establishing the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which has gone on to prove that there really is such a thing as a golden goose. The name “Marvel Studios” on a film all but guarantees an opening. 

Hang on a minute, though, I hear you say. 

Isn’t there a problem with It: Chapter Two here? Haven’t Warner’s executives allowed Muschietti to shoot them in the foot? 

The film, after all, does something rare, particularly with the horror genre, which could be said to have set the franchise ball rolling given that there were a plethora of them around before the MCU was even a twinkle in Kevin Feige’s eye.

Mild spoiler alert. 

The movie serves up an ending. A definitive one. 

There thus wouldn’t appear to be any scope for a third outing, much less an extended franchise.

Oh ye of little faith. For a start, those who slogged through the 1,400 or so pages of the source novel and paid attention to the role played by Ben Anscombe in the final act will be aware that there’s the potential for a literary sequel should Stephen King be so minded. What if Ben, shall we say, missed something, in the tunnels beneath Derry, the fictional New England town where the story is set? 

The film plays out differently. But a bit of exposition here, a flashback there… it’s not as if it hasn’t been done before. 

Much more likely, given what’s been said about the future of the franchise, is a prequel and perhaps a multiple of prequels given the years of history Pennywise has in Derry’s violent streets.   

It will ultimately depend on the returns. It: Chapter Two made $91m in North America plus $94m internationally over its opening weekend. That is quite a bit less than the first outing. 

But that makes it a disappointment only by comparison to its predecessor. For an R- or 15-rating movie it’s still one of the best openings of all time. Factor in that it did this despite a 169-minute running time, and the lukewarm critical response, and the financial side of the endeavour looks very promising. 

Forbes put the over/under for the total at $450m, which is, again, more than respectable for a horror film with a certificate that restricts its audience. 

Anything north of that would make the return of Pennywise in some form or another a financial imperative. And thus a virtual certainty.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/it-chapter-two-movie-pennywise-clown-stephen-king-hollywood-film-financing-a9099081.html

BMW’s Oxford workers will have to go on prolonged unpaid leave in case of disruptive no-deal Brexit

11/sep/2019

Workers at BMW’s Oxford plant which makes Minis will be left without pay for at least two weeks if a no-deal Brexit results in major disruption of its operations.

The company is prepared to close the site from 31 October and send its 4,500 staff on unpaid leave, chief financial officer Nicolas Peter told the Financial Times. The employees’ paid holiday allowance was already used up in April during a month-long shutdown of the factory, planned before the original Brexit date of 31 March.

“We are not capable of [implementing] a second holiday period in 2019,” Mr Peter said on Tuesday.

Although BMW’s current plan is to close the plant for no more than a fortnight, the shutdown could be extended to “three weeks or more” if the carmaker has trouble importing vital components, he noted.

Speaking at the Frankfurt Motor Show earlier on Tuesday, Mr Peter told reporters that BMW will halt production at the Oxford plant on 31 October and 1 November regardless of whether Britain leaves the EU with or without an agreement.

The announcement follows a statement by Toyota last week that it will stop production at its Burnaston factory in Derbyshire on 1 November to prepare for any disruption from the UK’s scheduled departure.

Britain’s car industry has for months been ringing the alarm about the damage it would suffer under a no-deal Brexit.

Despite extensive preparations by firms, such an outcome would wreak havoc with the “just-in-time” supply chains across the English Channel that the industry relies on. Combined with tariffs on exports to the EU, no-deal would threaten the very viability of the sector that employs 168,000 people, according to Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

BMW’s Mr Peter told the FT it is “still too early” to say whether, in case of a no-deal Brexit, production of the Mini will be moved out of Britain.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-no-deal-bmw-oxford-cowley-unpaid-leave-cars-minis-a9100516.html

Surge in councils using bailiffs to chase debts, including parking fines

11/sep/2019

Councils across England and Wales sent 2.6 million debts to bailiffs in 2018-19, a 7 per cent rise on the year before, according to analysis.

The Money Advice Trust (MAT), which runs National Debtline and Business Debtline, found a huge surge in the use of use in bailiffs to chase parking fines

The charity made the findings after receiving freedom of information (FOI) responses from 367 local authorities.

Bailiffs, also known as enforcement agents, can visit a property to remove and sell goods to repay certain debts, including council tax arrears, parking notices and other debts owed to councils.

The MAT’s new figures show parking debts were passed to bailiffs on nearly 1.1 million occasions – a 21% like-for-like increase on the same period in 2016-17.

The charity said three in 10 (30%) callers to its National Debtline last year had council tax arrears – up from just 15% in 2008.

Many of these callers are subject to bailiff action, with 83% of National Debtline callers who have experienced bailiff action surveyed reporting a negative impact on their wellbeing.

The MAT said it has found evidence that more councils are adopting best practice on affordability and vulnerability.

It found 64 councils have now signed up to the Citizens Advice/LGA (Local Government Association) council tax protocol – up from 50 two years ago. A further 23 councils said they are considering doing this.

PA

The number of council tax debts passed to bailiffs remained stable, but remains high at more than 1.4 million referrals in 2018-19, the MAT said.

The charity said three in 10 (30%) callers to its National Debtline last year had council tax arrears – up from just 15% in 2008.

Many of these callers are subject to bailiff action, with 83% of National Debtline callers who have experienced bailiff action surveyed reporting a negative impact on their wellbeing.

The MAT said it has found evidence that more councils are adopting best practice on affordability and vulnerability.

It found 64 councils have now signed up to the Citizens Advice/LGA (Local Government Association) council tax protocol – up from 50 two years ago. A further 23 councils said they are considering doing this.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bailiffs-council-tax-debts-parking-tickets-fines-a9100751.html

Property giants pay bosses £63m while ‘exacerbating housing crisis’ by sitting on enough land for 470,000 homes

06/sep/2019

‘Vast inequality’ shows ‘British housebuilding industry is broken’, says MP

The UK's ten biggest housing developers completed and sold 86,685 homes last year
The UK’s ten biggest housing developers completed and sold 86,685 homes last year ( Getty )

Property giants have been accused of rewarding bosses for “exacerbating the housing crisis” after spending £63.6m on chief executive pay last year while sitting on more than 470,000 unused plots of land.

The chief executives of Britain’s 10 biggest housing developers raked in a combined £63.6m, earning a median sum of £2.1m, according to figures compiled by the High Pay Centre. Four FTSE 100 companies handed £53.2m to their top bosses in total, a median pay packet of £5.7m.

The 10 firms completed and sold 86,685 homes last year, but hold planning permission for 470,068 other plots of land on which homes have not been built. The UK needs an estimated 340,000 new homes a year to meet demand. 

Councils have repeatedly complained of developers taking longer to build on sites which have been earmarked for housing, with the Local Government Association calling for powers that would allow local authorities to seize unused land.

The High Pay Centre said its findings raised questions about whether executives “should receive such vast sums of money, particularly given the many criticisms levelled at the big housing developers regarding the extent to which they are exacerbating the housing crisis”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/property-developers-housing-crisis-homebuilding-chief-executive-pay-ftse-100-a9093676.html

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